NJ Governor Race Remains Unpredictable as Most Voters Stay Undecided

New Jersey’s race for governor is still wide open, and with just a few months left before the primary election on June 10, most voters haven’t decided who to support.

According to a new poll by Emerson College, PIX11, and The Hill, more than half of Democratic voters and nearly half of Republican voters are still undecided.

As one of the most unpredictable elections in years, the race could go in any direction.

On the Democratic side, the poll shows that no candidate has a strong lead.

Right now, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill has the most support, but only 10 percent of Democratic voters say they would vote for her.

Meanwhile, former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each have 8 percent, putting them right behind her.

At the same time, U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer and former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney each have 7 percent, and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is trailing behind with 4 percent.

However, the most important number in this poll is that 56 percent of Democratic voters still haven’t decided.

Since no one is far ahead, any of these candidates could gain momentum in the coming months.

For the Republicans, the situation is a little different, but there’s still no guaranteed winner.

At the moment, Jack Ciattarelli has the highest support at 26 percent.

Since he ran for governor in 2021 and lost to Governor Phil Murphy, more people know his name, which gives him an advantage.

That said, conservative radio host Bill Spadea is in second place with 13 percent, so he is still very much in the race.

Other candidates, including State Senator Jon Bramnick, Roger Bacon, Hans Herberg, Former State Senator Edward Durr, Former Burlington City Mayor James Fazzone, and Robert Canfield, are all polling in the single digits.

But just like on the Democratic side, the biggest number to pay attention to is the 47 percent of Republican voters who still haven’t decided.

Because of this, the race is still open for any of these candidates to gain support.

At this point, these poll numbers mostly reflect how well each candidate is known rather than how strong their actual support is.

As primary elections in New Jersey usually have low voter turnout, the final results will depend on which candidates can get their supporters to show up.

Even though 77 percent of people in the poll said they plan to vote, political experts say the real number will likely be lower, maybe even under 20 percent.

Consequently, candidates will have to work hard to build excitement and convince their supporters to go to the polls.

The Democratic candidates for governor come from different parts of the state and have different political backgrounds.

Mikie Sherrill is a former Navy pilot and prosecutor representing North Jersey’s 11th Congressional District.

Sean Spiller is a former mayor of Montclair and is currently the president of the New Jersey Education Association.

Ras Baraka, who has been the mayor of Newark since 2014, has strong support in urban communities.

Josh Gottheimer, a congressman from North Jersey’s 5th District, is seen as a centrist who works with both parties.

While all of them are competing for votes, Stephen Sweeney, the former State Senate President, is trying to make a comeback after losing his seat in 2021.

And finally, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop has been in office since 2013, but he has struggled to build statewide recognition so far.

The two leading candidates are offering very different approaches on the Republican side.

Since Jack Ciattarelli already ran statewide in 2021, he has an advantage when it comes to name recognition.

Still, Bill Spadea has been using his platform as a conservative radio host to build support, especially among Trump supporters.

And Jon Bramnick, a state senator and former Assembly minority leader, is trying to present himself as a moderate Republican who can appeal to a wider audience.

The Republican Party in New Jersey has a mix of conservative and moderate voters, so these differences will play a big role in how the race unfolds.

Beyond the candidates, the political climate in New Jersey will also shape this race.

Since Governor Phil Murphy is not allowed to run again due to term limits, the state will elect a new leader regardless.

Even though New Jersey usually votes for Democrats in presidential elections, Republicans have been able to win governor’s races in the past.

In 2021, Phil Murphy won re-election by just three points, which was much closer than many people expected.

Former President Donald Trump lost New Jersey in 2020 by about six points, a smaller margin than usual.

The data shows that Republicans still have a chance to be competitive in this NJ governor election.

The biggest concern for voters heading into the election would be economic issues.

According to the poll, 63 percent of people say their income isn’t keeping up with the cost of living.

When asked about the most important issues, voters responded:

• 44 percent said the economy
• 21 percent said housing costs
• 8 percent said immigration
• 7 percent said healthcare

Therefore, the candidates will need to focus on these concerns if they want to win over undecided voters.

New Jersey’s governor’s race will also get national attention because it is one of only two major governor’s elections happening in 2025, along with Virginia.

Both states will elect new governors in the year after the 2024 presidential election, which experts see as early tests of voters’ feelings.

For now, the race is still wide open, and with so many voters undecided, anything can happen.

Over the next few months, candidates will focus on getting their names out there, gaining support, and proving why they are the best choice.